- The Fed is expected to loosen its quantitative tightening monetary policy by 2024, allowing money to flow back into risky assets like bitcoin.
- Also, the bitcoin network will undergo the halving in 2024, which will set the stage for the next big bull run.
Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $69,000 last year in November 2021 amid a massive bull run. since then btc price has been moving sideways and during the brutal market crash this week bitcoin crashed to $20,000.
read more: bitcoin (btc) narrowly avoids breaking critical support, is the worst over?
Reading: Bitcoin bull run 2024
It looks like bitcoin might not get out of bear control any time soon due to current global macro conditions. Based on historical trends, the bitcoin bull run occurs every four years. However, this time around, it could come a year early in 2024. Let’s take a look at some of the key reasons why the next big bitcoin bull run will happen in 2024.
the global macro perspective
due to high inflation in the united states, the federal reserve announced a 75 basis point increase in interest rates at the fomc meeting on wednesday. this was the biggest interest rate hike in 28 years since the u.s. inflation jumps to a four-decade high.
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Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, has made it clear that they will not stop raising interest rates until there is “convincing evidence” that inflation is coming down. Since the Federal Reserve plans to absorb liquidity from the market, the money is likely to flow into more stable assets, such as bonds. the United States. the 10-year Treasury bond yield is already marking a high of 3.5 percent as of now.
According to market analyst @tedtalksmacro, things could start to change as policymakers are likely to start cutting interest rates in 2024. In one of his recent posts, the analyst writes:
2024, the next big year for cryptocurrencies: pending regulatory headwinds. updated projection material from the federal reserve showed that policymakers expect to start cutting rates in 2024, which lines up with the upcoming bitcoin halving! between now & then the picture is gloomy until the data deteriorates.
but note that based on previous halving cycles, bitcoin has always hit a new all-time high 12 months after the rally.
when will things look better for bitcoin again?
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It is always difficult to predict the exact background. but historical trends and past chart patterns always help to make a guided decision. Popular crypto analyst Rekt Capital writes that Bitcoin could enter a major consolidation over the next six months to 2022. He also expects BTC to trade in a tight consolidation range.
If #btc continues to hold the 200-week average as support and the 200-week black average as resistance… $btc could form an accumulation range here, just like in 2018
this would allow consolidation of several months even until December 2022#crypto #bitcoin pic.twitter.com/tmpx8gu92g
— rekt capital (@rektcapital) June 15, 2022
The analyst also believes that bitcoin could see the final bottom in the fourth quarter of 2022 by drawing a correlation between the previous bottoms and the next halving cycles. the analyst wrote: “in 2015, btc bottomed out 547 days before halving. In 2018, $btc bottomed out 517 days before the halving (Mark 2020 discount). if bitcoin is going to bottom out 517-547 days before the next halving in april 2024… then it will bottom out in the fourth quarter of this year.”
on the other hand, fidelity believes that bitcoin is undervalued and oversold at the current cross. Michael Saylor, bitcoin maximalist and CEO of microstrategy, suggested this could be a good entry point if someone is investing for a four-year horizon.
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