We Can Help With Your Bitcoin-Themed Super Bowl Prop Bet | FiveThirtyEight

We Can Help With Your Bitcoin-Themed Super Bowl Prop Bet | FiveThirtyEight


It’s Super Bowl week, and that means it’s time for an annual tradition that’s close to our hearts: analyzing bets on silly propositions that have nothing to do with the outcome of the game.

Reading: Bitcoin price during super bowl

Each year during the Super Bowl, sportsbooks around the world offer side bets on everything from the outcome of the opening coin toss to who the Super Bowl MVP will mention first in their speech. books are generally quite careful about the odds they publish and the bets they accept. after all, if they weren’t cautious, they wouldn’t be in business for long. But the Super Bowl drives everyone a little crazy, and the books can sometimes offer good odds on exotic bets that are hard to price properly. and the bets create interesting puzzles. In previous years, we’ve analyzed props about how long it would take Gladys Knight to sing the national anthem, the most likely opening song at Jennifer Lopez’s halftime show, and which word Amanda Gorman would utter first during the performance of her pre-show poem. play.

This year we’re doing our most ridiculous analysis yet: trying to determine whether the price of bitcoin will go up or down during the super bowl. At the time of this writing,1 the odds of Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency that some love and some love to hate, going up are slightly higher than the odds of it going down, at least according to online sports book Bovada. the money line for the bet that the price of bitcoin will rise is currently priced at -130, which represents an implied probability of 56.5 percent (including sportsbooks spread, or vigorish). meanwhile, the line for a bitcoin super bowl withdrawal is even, good for an implied probability of 50 percent. bovada apparently believes that the bulls will come out on super bowl sunday, increasing the price of bitcoin. but are you on the right side of this particular bet?

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Before answering that question, we first need to delve into the drivers of bitcoin price fluctuations, and there are a lot of fluctuations. Unlike other tradable assets like commodities or stocks, the price of bitcoin does not typically move with changes in the underlying fundamentals of the cryptocurrency. the code that controls bitcoin continues to change as new features are added, but the basic fundamentals of cryptocurrency that affect scarcity, and thus, apparently at least, the price of a bitcoin, have remained fairly stable over the last decade.2 Instead, the price of bitcoin is driven by speculation. investors bet on what other investors will do in the future, and if enough people believe that other people believe the price of bitcoin will go up and act accordingly, bitcoin will indeed go up in price. some refer to this type of behavior as a speculative bubble, and we will perform exactly this type of analysis to understand which side of this bet to bet on.

First, to substantiate our expectations, we need a base rate. we use btc closing price data published on kaggle by mark zielinski from 2012 to march 2021, collected at one minute intervals from various exchanges.3 we filter price data only for those trades that occurred from the start to the end of each super bowl since 2013.4

We Can Help With Your Bitcoin-Themed Super Bowl Prop Bet | FiveThirtyEight

We Can Help With Your Bitcoin-Themed Super Bowl Prop Bet | FiveThirtyEight

Beginning with the Harbaugh Brothers’ Blackout Bowl, the first four Super Bowls of the bitcoin era ended with the price of the cryptocurrency lower than when the game started. It wasn’t until 2017 — when now-noted cryptocurrency enthusiast Tom Brady led the New England Patriots to a historic comeback after falling behind 28-3 to the Atlanta Falcons — that bitcoin ended its first Super Bowl with a price higher than when the game started. The tenacious currency followed its first win with another in Super Bowl LII. Two years of losses followed in Super Bowl LIII and Super Bowl LIV before bitcoin rebounded last year in Brady’s final Super Bowl win, with Tampa Bay.

It is perhaps appropriate that the only super bowls in the last nine years in which the price of bitcoin increased were the ones involving brady. Or maybe it’s just because Brady played in so many Super Bowls. But while Brady has won seven of the 10 times he has stepped onto the field for a championship game, Bitcoin has fared much worse: In six of the last nine Super Bowls, the cryptocurrency has lost value over the course of the game.

With this 66.6 percent base rate in hand, we can look for reasons to adjust our bitcoin price expectation at the end of super bowl lvi. most promising for bitcoin bulls: the last time bitcoin was breaking off an all-time high at the end of a calendar year, and subsequently following that peak with an implosion of at least 40 percent of its total value, the price of bitcoin went up in the super bowl. In late 2017, bitcoin hit an all-time high of nearly $20,000, only to quickly catch fire in early 2018 and drop to a pregame lii price of $7,876. The bitcoin super bowl dead cat bounce was a big one, as bitcoin rose as high as $8,238 by the end of the game.

See also: US Department of Justice, aided by cryptocurrency exchanges, seizes over US3.6 billion in stolen Bitcoin | Insights | DLA Piper Global Law Firm

Bitcoin faces a similar situation this year. After peaking at $67,549 in early November, it dipped below $40,000 last month and is currently trading around $42,000 heading into Super Bowl LVI. Speculators could take advantage of the game to try to push the price up, especially if airs its commercial starring Matt Damon reminding viewers that “fortune favors the brave”.

We admit that the chance of a price drop is probably less than 66.6%, but there are other reasons to short bitcoin in the game. The Super Bowl draws millions of viewers each year, but the proportion of people ages 18 to 49 who watch the game has been steadily declining during the Bitcoin era. In 2013, 50.2 million people in the “key demographic” watched the Super Bowl. in 2021, that number was just 34.3 million. if the majority of bitcoin speculators are men between the ages of 18 and 45, the super bowl seems to have become a less reliable way to reach them.

And finally, a pump isn’t worth much to a pumper without a subsequent dump. If speculators see a spike in bitcoin price during the game, they can sell en masse to lock in their profits. Most of the recent bitcoin price charts show this pattern of sell-off after a second-half price surge, and it seems more likely to repeat itself. all of which makes betting on the price of bitcoin falling during the super bowl at an even price a solid value bet.

Best of all, you don’t have to buy fake money to potentially profit from betting against bitcoin. Bovada and other sportsbooks still accept dollars, and still settle your bets with the actual legal tender of the United States. good morning cryptofamily.

Check out our latest NFL predictions.

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